I can never get to all of your questions. Thanks for sending them. Here are the ones that I thought were most generally actionable and relatable given that camps have yet to start. They’re also the ones I’m able to answer.
Which player who is frequently taken in the first round will be a bust? — Ryan D.
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First, consider the historical analysis of the first round I did for The Athletic fantasy magazine last year. The average is an 11.6% decline in prior-year points. So if you do only that bad, you’re fine. I guess a bust would be about a 30% drop in points, either due to injury (most likely) or just bad performance. I also don’t like, “I could have taken a better player later,” as we can say that about just about every player taken in the first round. You have to calibrate your expectations. We obviously can’t project injuries, except that running backs are about twice as likely to miss multiple games as wide receivers. So if you want to cut that risk in half, draft a WR.
Ignoring injuries and just looking at expected performance, the guy I just will not take is Austin Ekeler. He’s aging out of peak production. Passes to RBs are the worst play in football (by any success-rate methodology) and the Chargers want to de-emphasize that, as we can see by how they switched OCs/systems. Goodbye 127 targets. Ekeler is not a between-the-tackle runner, yet has had incredible TD efficiency, which seems likely to regress. Ekeler scored 372 PPR points. So I’m saying he’s going to get about 260, if he stays healthy. I will admit a lot of this regression is priced in but, as they say, never try to catch a falling knife.
What metrics are your favorite for evaluating and finding values at each position group (QB, RB, WR, TE)? — Jonathan H.
For RBs and WRs, it’s market share, which I write about here every week on Tuesdays during the NFL regular season. While targets are more important for a RB than carries, carries are more predictive of future touches than targets are. So that’s tricky. I care about air yards for WRs at the extremes — I don’t want too few per attempt nor too many. It’s like Goldilocks. The porridge has to be just right. The sweet spot is 9-to-11 air yards per target, and 10 is actually ideal.
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TEs is simple: Is he on the field on 3rd-and-long and running routes? If yes, I want him. If not, he’s just a rando. My time-honored method for picking QBs is YPA. I want his rank in efficiency to comport with the TD% ranking, for predictive purposes. That’s how I’ll always bet. By this method, with 2023 starters (not including Ryan Tannehill given TEN using a premium pick on a QB), the buy is Tua Tagovailoa, for sure. Maybe Jalen Hurts, but he takes away a lot of his passing TDs with his own running TDs (he has a cushion here though). If Sam Darnold starts, he’d be a buy given his YPA was second only to Tua. The fades (TD% was too high relative to YPA) would be Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. Of course, Jackson runs, and he runs proactively and predictably, though injury risk comes with it (also the risk of almost any injury severely hampering his running).
Which players, based on their current ADPs, do you think are most likely to outperform their draft position? — Robert B.
Let’s limit this to guys going outside the Top 100 overall picks currently. I like David Njoku at pick No. 108 on average. Aaron Rodgers at pick No. 115 — I think he throws 35 TDs again, his three-year average. Allen Lazard, just because of Rodgers, at pick No. 123 as sort of a poor man’s Tee Higgins. I hate RBs with Achilles histories but D’Onta Foreman was very good last year and got some money, so 137th is cheap. Jeff Wilson is too good and the Dolphins have too good a run system for him to be pick No. 153. I like buying a Michael Gallup bounce-back two years after his ACL injury at pick No. 162. Jonathan Mingo could be a Garrett Wilson-type but with better QB play (actually having his stats boosted with better QB play than rookie Wilson), at pick 176.
How do I win my league but make it look like I didn’t try super hard? — Peter H.
@Peter H. Do you have a flux capacitor? What I would do is travel several months into the future and pull up a website with 2023 NFL fantasy leaders. I think the rest is self-explanatory. — Wes B.
I think the key to drafting in the second and third rounds is asking, “Who could be the coverboy of fantasy football magazines next year?” Garrett Wilson. Nick Chubb. Tony Pollard. Rhamondre Stevenson. Those guys scare me a little as an opponent.
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Who do you see as an overrated WR? I think Davante Adams scares me with Jimmy G? Am I overthinking it? — Varman N.
I think you are. Why are we killing Adams for QB play/injury risk but ignoring it completely with the Dolphins WRs and with Cooper Kupp? Derek Carr was benched, which is like an injury. Yet Adams was great all year, leading WRs in TDs. Is Jimmy Garappolo even a step down from Carr? More targets probably left town than came in, at least expected targets, with Darren Waller gone. I see Adams with 180 targets again, assuming he’s healthy. I don’t take him as the No. 3 WR because I don’t have to, but if he went there, I would. I just don’t get the fear here where it’s totally absent with Kupp, especially.
What are your thoughts on the LA Chargers this year starting the season with all their receivers healthy and with Kellen Moore as OC? Who offers more value, Keenan Allen or Mike Williams? — Juansi A.
Well, Allen goes two rounds earlier. I want little to do with him (he’s allergic to the end zone) and nothing to do with Williams. I guess I’m drafting Quentin Johnston if he makes it to the triple digit picks (right now he’s No. 99). I can see taking Keenan Allen if he falls well into the fourth round, and ideally the fifth.
Can you help me learn from last year’s mistakes? In my 2022 home league draft I was banking on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Allen Robinson… What can I learn from missing on both? — Peter S.
I love your process here. I tell people an expert is just someone who’s made every mistake that can be made in a very narrow field. That’s me in fantasy football. Hopefully, I’ve learned from it. The lesson here is that when a wide receiver goes bad, don’t pay for him to bounce back. Robinson was the horrible pick. JuJu wasn’t even that bad. The lesson with JuJu is also one of not expecting a player whose only success came with a great running mate (Antonio Brown) and Hall of Fame QB to be able to step up into a true WR1 role. Plus, JuJu didn’t even get security or money last year from the Chiefs. So really no one in the league believed in him, so why should we have believed?
How should one consider a player’s ceiling, floor, and median outcome when drafting? Everyone wants to find the “league winners” but how do you maintain a balance? — Ayush M.
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Fantasy football is so different from fantasy baseball. You want about five top scorers to win. QBs who score well can come from all areas of the draft, so that’s why we wait there. WRs are way more likely to be top scorers than RBs after Round 1, so that’s why we focus on them in the “RB dead zone.” If you get Travis Kelce, you’ve landed a top player where, at most, one or two league mates will convert that TE slot into an actual asset. You have to expect about half of your top picks to fall short though. So that’s why you really have to focus on the player’s ceiling rather than his floor after the seventh round. With every pick, ask, “Is there a plausible path for this player to be a guy I happily start every week.” Just plausible. No guarantees. But some players we draft are almost certain to be replacement level, guys we can just replace easily on waivers. Why draft Tyler Boyd for example? Why draft JuJu? Jakobi Meyers? Devin Singletary? Adam Thielen? Dawson Knox? I could go on. You get the idea. Get ham and eggs at the diner, not at the draft.
And enjoy our printable, free “2023 roster page printout thingy” by the wonderful Christina Lee.
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
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